当前位置:新闻动态

Trade war aside, Port Tracker expects record summer port volumes

来源:    编辑:编辑部    发布:2018/07/12 08:57:30

DESPITE the firing of opening salvos in the Sino-US trade war, the National Retail Federation's (NRF) Port Tracker expects inbound US retail container shipments to set records in July.

"Retailers cannot easily or quickly change their global supply chains, so imports from China and elsewhere are expected to continue to grow for the foreseeable future," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold. 

"As tariffs begin to hit imported consumer goods or the parts and equipment needed to produce US goods, these hidden taxes will mean higher prices for Americans rather than significant changes to international trade," he said.

For May, the most recent month for which data is available, Port Tracker reported that US-based retail container ports hit 1.82 million TEU, which was 11.6 per cent ahead of April, which coincides with the beginning of summer merchandise coming into US ports.

And it added that June is pegged at 1.83 million TEU for a 6.8 per cent annual gain, with July pegged at 1.87 million TEU for a 3.8 per cent annual uptick. August and September are expected to hit 1.91 million TEU and 1.82 million TEU, respectively, for annual gains of 4.2 per cent and 2.1 per cent. October is estimated to be up 5.3 per cent annually at 1.89 million TEU.

As for the anticipated records, the report explained that June's projected 1.82 million TEU would tie August 2017 as the highest-volume TEU month, which was set in August 2017, with July's estimated 1.87 million TEU topping that and August's estimated 1.91 million TEU poised to set another record.

What's more, the report said that the first half of 2018, which is expected to hit 10.3 million TEU, would mark a 4.9 per cent annual gain.

"July 6 was the official beginning of the United States' trade war with China and the European Union," wrote Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett in the report. 

"Will it make a difference to international trade and cargo volume? Globally, not all that much, but for the United States there will certainly be an impact. What started as the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum has turned into a broader tit-for-tat with responses from China and the EU and threats of counter responses from President Trump. 

"Consumer demand remains solid with no decline, but we can expect to see the trade war eventually impacting future retail sales," he said. "The biggest impact will be on the west coast, where China trade dominate. The combination of the trade war and higher tariffs can only result in a reduction of trade to and from the U.S."

The ports surveyed in the report include Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, and Savannah, Miami, Jacksonville, and Fort Lauderdale and Port Everglades.